Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Miles Johns enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Miles Johns has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Miles Johns has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mario Bautista (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Miles JohnsL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Jun 24L
vs Jean Matsumoto · Aug 25L
SUBvs Daniel Marcos · Nov 25 Mario BautistaW2 streak
oldest →L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25W
SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26W
DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Miles JohnsMetricMario Bautista
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.37evenly matched on net striking+1.32
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Miles JohnsMario Bautista
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Miles Johns(10 fights)Mario Bautista(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -74.8|Blue +74.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -56.0|Blue +56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Miles JohnsTargetMario Bautista
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Miles Johns edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Mario Bautista edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
1Knockdowns
