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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Thales Leites won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1368

Thales LeitesvsHector LombardUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · Saturday, September 22, 2018Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Thales Leites won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupThales Leites: WrestlervsHector Lombard: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Thales Leites wins(64.9%)

Actual result: Thales Leites wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thales Leites at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hector Lombard enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Hector Lombard has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Hector Lombard (53.5%).
Thales Leites has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Thales Leites

Red Corner

Hector Lombard

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1491

Elo

1368

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'9"

198.12 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Thales LeitesL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Camozzi · Aug 16

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Nov 16

vs Sam Alvey · Apr 17

vs Brad Tavares · Oct 17

KOvs Jack Hermansson · May 18

latest

Hector LombardL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Neil Magny · Mar 16

KOvs Dan Henderson · Jun 16

vs Johny Hendricks · Feb 17

KOvs Anthony Smith · Sep 17

vs CB Dollaway · Mar 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Thales LeitesMetricHector Lombard

2.13

Strikes / min

3.02

2.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

52%

Strike defense

53%

2.10

TDs / 15 min

1.69

30%

Takedown defense

77%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.86evenly matched on net striking-0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Thales LeitesHector Lombard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Thales Leites(10 fights)Hector Lombard(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +123.6|Blue -123.6

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Thales LeitesTargetHector Lombard

By target zone

31% acc · 48%

Head

40% acc · 35%

82% acc · 33%

Body

75% acc · 7%

100% acc · 19%

Leg

75% acc · 59%

By position

42% acc · 83%

Distance

57% acc · 91%

82% acc · 17%

Clinch

67% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Thales Leites rounds

even

Hector Lombard rounds

Round 1Hector Lombard edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Thales Leites edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:07

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 3Thales Leites edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control0:13

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 117

Sig Strikes

46 / 80

44.3%

Sig Str %

58%

60 / 123

Total Strikes

62 / 98

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

1:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Hector Lombard	15 / 24	15 / 24	0 / 0
1	Thales Leites	5 / 20	5 / 20	0 / 0
2	Hector Lombard	15 / 31	21 / 38	0 / 0
2	Thales Leites	19 / 57	19 / 57	1 / 1
3	Hector Lombard	16 / 25	26 / 36	0 / 0
3	Thales Leites	30 / 40	36 / 46	1 / 2

Thales Leites

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights13

Hector Lombard

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11