Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alessandro Costa is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Matt Schnell has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Alessandro Costa has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt Schnell
oldest →L
KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Dec 22L
KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24L
SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24L
SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25 Alessandro CostaW2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Kevin Borjas · May 24L
KOvs Alden Coria · Sep 25W
KOvs Stewart Nicoll · Apr 26W
SUBvs Cody Durden · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt SchnellMetricAlessandro Costa
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.04evenly matched on net striking+0.01
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Schnell(10 fights)Alessandro Costa(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -78.5|Blue +78.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -63.0|Blue +63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Matt SchnellTargetAlessandro Costa
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Alessandro Costa edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
