Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kyle Nelson
oldest →W
vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23W
KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24L
KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24W
vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25L
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26 Blake Bilder
oldest →L
vs JeongYeong Lee · Feb 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kyle NelsonMetricBlake Bilder
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.98evenly matched on net striking-0.34
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Kyle NelsonBlake Bilder
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kyle Nelson(10 fights)Blake Bilder(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.9|Blue +1.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +203.0|Blue -203.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Kyle NelsonTargetBlake Bilder
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control1:18
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:22Control
Round 2Kyle Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:14Control
Round 3Kyle Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control1:03
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:09Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
