Lightweight

3 Rounds

Scott Holtzman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1443

Elo1360

Scott HoltzmanvsMichael McBrideUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · Saturday, April 22, 2017Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Scott Holtzman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupScott Holtzman: Pressure fightervsMichael McBride: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Scott Holtzman wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Scott Holtzman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Scott Holtzman at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Scott Holtzman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Scott Holtzman has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Scott Holtzman has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Michael McBride has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Scott Holtzman

Red Corner

Michael McBride

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1443

Elo

1360

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'1"

175.26 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Scott HoltzmanL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Aug 19

vs Jim Miller · Feb 20

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Aug 20

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Apr 21

vs Clay Guida · Dec 22

latest

Michael McBride

oldest →

KOvs Nik Lentz · Sep 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Scott HoltzmanMetricMichael McBride

4.32

Strikes / min

4.08

3.66

Strikes absorbed / min

5.85

55%

Strike defense

40%

1.88

TDs / 15 min

1.85

67%

Takedown defense

30%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.66Δ 2.43 — meaningful gap-1.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Scott HoltzmanMichael McBride

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Scott Holtzman(10 fights)Michael McBride(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +83.1|Blue -83.1

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +2.9|Blue -2.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Scott HoltzmanTargetMichael McBride

By target zone

51% acc · 67%

Head

39% acc · 60%

36% acc · 8%

Body

66% acc · 23%

81% acc · 25%

Leg

88% acc · 17%

By position

50% acc · 62%

Distance

49% acc · 88%

67% acc · 4%

Clinch

38% acc · 4%

63% acc · 35%

Ground

47% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Scott Holtzman rounds

even

Michael McBride rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control1:31

Knockdowns1

34Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:34Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Scott Holtzman edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control2:42

20Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 3Scott Holtzman edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns1

Control2:32

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

104 / 190

Sig Strikes

83 / 172

54.7%

Sig Str %

48.3%

109 / 198

Total Strikes

140 / 236

2 / 4

TDs

3 / 6

66.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

6:45

Ctrl Time

0:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael McBride	34 / 68	50 / 84	1 / 1	1
1	Scott Holtzman	27 / 48	27 / 48	0 / 2	0
2	Michael McBride	20 / 39	36 / 59	2 / 4	0
2	Scott Holtzman	30 / 53	33 / 58	1 / 1	0
3	Michael McBride	29 / 65	54 / 93	0 / 1	1
3	Scott Holtzman	47 / 89	49 / 92	1 / 1	0

Scott Holtzman

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13

Michael McBride

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach—

Fights2