Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joaquin Buckley has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Joaquin Buckley (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Joaquin BuckleyL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24W
KOvs Stephen Thompson · Oct 24W
KOvs Colby Covington · Dec 24L
vs Kamaru Usman · Jun 25L
DECvs Sean Brady · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Joaquin BuckleyMetricAntonio Arroyo
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.52evenly matched on net striking+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Joaquin BuckleyAntonio Arroyo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)Antonio Arroyo(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +108.5|Blue -108.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Joaquin BuckleyTargetAntonio Arroyo
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Joaquin Buckley edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control0:08
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 2Joaquin Buckley edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:55
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
Round 3Joaquin Buckley edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:15
Knockdowns1
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
