Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alessandro Costa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Alden Coria has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Alessandro Costa has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alessandro CostaW4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Kevin Borjas · May 24W
KOvs Stewart Nicoll · Apr 26W
KOvs Matt Schnell · Jun 26W
SUBvs Cody Durden · Jul 26 Alden CoriaW2 streak
oldest →W
DECvs Stewart Nicoll · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alessandro CostaMetricAlden Coria
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.01Δ 2.28 — meaningful gap+2.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Alessandro CostaAlden Coria
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alessandro Costa(8 fights)Alden Coria(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -10.6|Blue +10.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alessandro CostaTargetAlden Coria
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Alden Coria edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:01
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Alden Coria edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns1
Control1:23
12Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:15Control
Round 3Alden Coria edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
