Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
John Lineker
oldest →L
vs TJ Dillashaw · Dec 16W
KOvs Brian Kelleher · May 18L
vs Cory Sandhagen · Apr 19 Ali Bagautinov
oldest →L
vs Demetrious Johnson · Jun 14L
vs Joseph Benavidez · Oct 15W
vs Geane Herrera · Jun 16L
vs Kyoji Horiguchi · Nov 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
John LinekerMetricAli Bagautinov
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.09Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap-0.24
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
John LinekerAli Bagautinov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
John Lineker(10 fights)Ali Bagautinov(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.5|Blue -2.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
John LinekerTargetAli Bagautinov
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Ali Bagautinov edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:24Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:18
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:33Control
Round 3Ali Bagautinov edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:03
20Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
3:23Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
