Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Michael Chiesa has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael ChiesaW4 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24W
SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26 Francisco Trinaldo
oldest →W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21W
vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21W
vs Danny Roberts · May 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael ChiesaMetricFrancisco Trinaldo
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.29evenly matched on net striking+0.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Michael ChiesaFrancisco Trinaldo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +32.4|Blue -32.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +101.0|Blue -101.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Michael ChiesaTargetFrancisco Trinaldo
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
0
Francisco Trinaldo rounds
Round 1Michael Chiesa edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control2:30
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Michael Chiesa edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control3:14
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Michael Chiesa edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control3:07
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
