Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Santiago Ponzinibbio has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gunnar Nelson
oldest →L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19L
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19W
vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23L
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25 Santiago PonzinibbioL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24W
KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25L
KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25L
KOvs Sam Patterson · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gunnar NelsonMetricSantiago Ponzinibbio
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.29Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+0.10
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Gunnar NelsonSantiago Ponzinibbio
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +19.6|Blue -19.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -27.0|Blue +27.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Gunnar NelsonTargetSantiago Ponzinibbio
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Santiago Ponzinibbio rounds
Round 1Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
