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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Ricardo Lamas won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1492
Erik Koch
Elo1493
Ricardo Lamas

Erik KochvsRicardo LamasUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · Saturday, January 26, 2013Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Ricardo Lamas won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:32

Model Prediction: Ricardo Lamas wins(60.8%)

Actual result: Ricardo Lamas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ricardo Lamas at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ricardo Lamas has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Erik Koch has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Erik Koch (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Erik Koch
Red Corner
VS
Ricardo Lamas
Blue Corner
-225
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+205
(33%)
1492
Elo
1493
37
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'8"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Erik Koch
oldest →
L
KOvs Daron Cruickshank · May 14
W
SUBvs Shane Campbell · May 16
L
vs Clay Guida · Jun 17
L
vs Bobby Green · Jan 18
W
vs Kyle Stewart · Jul 19
latest
Ricardo Lamas
oldest →
L
KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 17
L
vs Mirsad Bektic · Jun 18
W
KOvs Darren Elkins · Nov 18
L
KOvs Calvin Kattar · Jun 19
W
vs Bill Algeo · Aug 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Erik KochMetricRicardo Lamas
2.33
Strikes / min
3.13
2.82
Strikes absorbed / min
2.87
47%
Strike defense
57%
1.02
TDs / 15 min
1.84
81%
Takedown defense
46%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.49evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1532 vs 1547Strikes22.0 vs 20.3Takedowns0.0 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.67Form1.0 vs 1.0
Erik KochRicardo Lamas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Erik Koch(10 fights)Ricardo Lamas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +279.0|Blue -279.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Erik KochTargetRicardo Lamas

By target zone

9
24% acc · 64%
Head
18
50% acc · 56%
2
67% acc · 14%
Body
7
78% acc · 22%
3
75% acc · 21%
Leg
7
64% acc · 22%

By position

12
29% acc · 86%
Distance
10
34% acc · 31%
2
100% acc · 14%
Clinch
7
100% acc · 22%
0
Ground
15
75% acc · 47%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Erik Koch rounds
0
even
2
Ricardo Lamas rounds
Round 1Ricardo Lamas edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:08
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:13Control
Round 2Ricardo Lamas edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:12
21Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:03Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
14 / 44
Sig Strikes
32 / 56
32%
Sig Str %
56.5%
25 / 55
Total Strikes
40 / 65
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 8
—
TD %
57%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:20
Ctrl Time
3:16

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ricardo Lamas11 / 2016 / 261 / 70
1Erik Koch7 / 2516 / 340 / 00
2Ricardo Lamas21 / 3624 / 391 / 10
2Erik Koch7 / 199 / 210 / 00

Erik Koch

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10

Ricardo Lamas

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights17