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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Karol Rosa won · S-DEC R3

Elo1493

Karol RosavsLara ProcopioUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang · Saturday, August 31, 2019Shenzhen, Guangdong, China

Official fight result

Karol Rosa won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKarol Rosa: Pressure fightervsLara Procopio: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Karol Rosa wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Karol Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karol Rosa at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karol Rosa has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Karol Rosa

Red Corner

Lara Procopio

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1493

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karol Rosa

oldest →

vs Irene Aldana · Dec 23

vs Pannie Kianzad · Aug 24

vs Ailin Perez · Jan 25

vs Nora Cornolle · Aug 25

DECvs Luana Santos · Jun 26

latest

Lara Procopio

oldest →

vs Molly McCann · Feb 21

SUBvs Casey O'Neill · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karol RosaMetricLara Procopio

5.88

Strikes / min

5.64

4.59

Strikes absorbed / min

6.50

49%

Strike defense

47%

1.17

TDs / 15 min

3.15

70%

Takedown defense

50%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.29Δ 2.15 — meaningful gap-0.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karol RosaLara Procopio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karol Rosa(10 fights)Lara Procopio(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karol RosaTargetLara Procopio

By target zone

108

41% acc · 63%

Head

122

50% acc · 74%

69% acc · 6%

Body

87% acc · 8%

75% acc · 30%

Leg

97% acc · 18%

By position

159

48% acc · 93%

Distance

158

56% acc · 96%

64% acc · 4%

Clinch

78% acc · 4%

71% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karol Rosa rounds

even

Lara Procopio rounds

Round 1Lara Procopio edged it

Sig. strikes57

Takedowns0

Control0:00

66Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Karol Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes59

Takedowns0

Control0:23

54Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Karol Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes55

Takedowns0

Control0:41

Knockdowns1

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

171 / 351

Sig Strikes

165 / 290

48.7%

Sig Str %

56.3%

177 / 358

Total Strikes

169 / 294

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 5

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:04

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lara Procopio	66 / 112	69 / 115	0 / 2
1	Karol Rosa	57 / 128	60 / 131	0 / 0
2	Lara Procopio	54 / 101	55 / 102	0 / 1
2	Karol Rosa	59 / 113	60 / 115	0 / 0
3	Lara Procopio	45 / 77	45 / 77	0 / 2
3	Karol Rosa	55 / 110	57 / 112	0 / 0

Karol Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights12

Lara Procopio

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3