Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Fabricio Werdum threatens submissions; Alexander Gustafsson has lost 38% of fights by sub.
- Alexander Gustafsson has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Fabricio WerdumL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Alistair Overeem · Jul 17W
SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17W
vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18L
vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20 Alexander GustafssonL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Jan Blachowicz · Sep 16W
KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17L
SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Fabricio WerdumMetricAlexander Gustafsson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.95evenly matched on net striking+0.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Fabricio WerdumAlexander Gustafsson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +62.1|Blue -62.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -343.0|Blue +343.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Fabricio WerdumTargetAlexander Gustafsson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Alexander Gustafsson rounds
Round 1Alexander Gustafsson edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control1:06
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
