Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Takashi Sato enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Gunnar Nelson threatens submissions; Takashi Sato has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (54.1%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gunnar Nelson
oldest →W
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 18L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19L
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23L
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25 Takashi SatoL3 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Belal Muhammad · Sep 19W
KOvs Jason Witt · Jun 20L
SUBvs Miguel Baeza · Nov 20L
KOvs Bryan Battle · Aug 22L
vs Themba Gorimbo · May 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gunnar NelsonMetricTakashi Sato
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.29evenly matched on net striking-1.52
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Gunnar NelsonTakashi Sato
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Takashi Sato(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +37.4|Blue -37.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +427.0|Blue -427.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Gunnar NelsonTargetTakashi Sato
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Gunnar Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns1
Control2:05
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Gunnar Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control2:36
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Gunnar Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control3:28
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
