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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Axel Sola won · Submission R1

Elo1449

Elo1526

Ismael BonfimvsAxel SolaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Saturday, July 25, 2026Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Axel Sola won

Submission · Round 1 · 4:44

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Ismael Bonfim

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Ismael Bonfim at +165 American odds · hypothetical only

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Style matchupIsmael Bonfim: Pressure fightervsAxel Sola: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Axel Sola is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Ismael Bonfim has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Axel Sola threatens submissions; Ismael Bonfim has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Ismael Bonfim has 76pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ismael Bonfim

Red Corner

Axel Sola

Blue Corner

+163

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-195

(66%)

1449

Elo

1526

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ismael BonfimL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Terrance McKinney · Jan 23

SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jul 23

vs Vinc Pichel · May 24

KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Feb 25

KOvs Chris Padilla · Nov 25

latest

Axel Sola

oldest →

KOvs Rhys McKee · Sep 25

vs Mason Jones · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ismael BonfimMetricAxel Sola

5.51

Strikes / min

4.07

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

5.29

65%

Strike defense

61%

1.06

TDs / 15 min

2.22

76%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.80Δ 3.02 — meaningful gap-1.22

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ismael Bonfim(6 fights)Axel Sola(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -77.5|Blue +77.5

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ismael BonfimTargetAxel Sola

By target zone

0% acc

Head

74% acc · 94%

Body

100% acc · 6%

50% acc · 100%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 76%

Ground

40% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ismael Bonfim rounds

even

Axel Sola rounds

Round 1Axel Sola edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control2:03

Knockdowns0

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 3

Sig Strikes

33 / 44

33%

Sig Str %

75%

1 / 3

Total Strikes

77 / 96

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:03

Ctrl Time

2:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Axel Sola	33 / 44	77 / 96	0 / 0	1
1	Ismael Bonfim	1 / 3	1 / 3	1 / 3	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Axel Sola

Odds

-204

Market-implied probability

Ismael Bonfim 36%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Ismael Bonfim (model pick · research)$265

Axel Sola$149

36% market-implied · model 51% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC at +165 · never rewritten

Ismael Bonfim

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Axel Sola

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3