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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Max Holloway won · U-DEC R5
Elo1517
Max Holloway editorial illustration
Elo1441
Frankie Edgar

Max HollowayvsFrankie EdgarUFC Prediction Result

UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · Saturday, July 27, 2019Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupMax Holloway: Pressure fightervsFrankie Edgar: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(61.9%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Max Holloway is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Frankie Edgar has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Max Holloway has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Max Holloway
Red Corner
VS
Frankie Edgar
Blue Corner
-335
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+275
(27%)
1517
Elo
1441
34
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'6"
175.26 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Max Holloway
oldest →
W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24
W
vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25
L
vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26
W
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26
latest
Frankie EdgarL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 19
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 20
L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Feb 21
L
KOvs Marlon Vera · Nov 21
L
KOvs Chris Gutierrez · Nov 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Max HollowayMetricFrankie Edgar
6.91
Strikes / min
3.77
4.61
Strikes absorbed / min
2.82
58%
Strike defense
65%
0.23
TDs / 15 min
2.29
81%
Takedown defense
65%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.30Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1665 vs 1599Strikes6.7 vs 3.6Takedowns0.2 vs 2.3Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.30Form0.2 vs 0.3
Max HollowayFrankie Edgar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Max Holloway(10 fights)Frankie Edgar(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +76.8|Blue -76.8
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red -357.0|Blue +357.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Max HollowayTargetFrankie Edgar

By target zone

109
37% acc · 84%
Head
57
29% acc · 59%
20
61% acc · 16%
Body
21
44% acc · 22%
0
Leg
18
86% acc · 19%

By position

120
38% acc · 93%
Distance
93
37% acc · 97%
8
100% acc · 6%
Clinch
2
20% acc · 2%
1
100% acc · 1%
Ground
1
50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Max Holloway rounds
0
even
1
Frankie Edgar rounds
Round 1Frankie Edgar edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Round 3Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:59Control
Round 4Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:28Control
Round 5Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:00
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
129 / 328
Sig Strikes
96 / 264
38.6%
Sig Str %
35.8%
131 / 330
Total Strikes
96 / 264
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 15
—
TD %
5%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
1:46

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Frankie Edgar18 / 5318 / 530 / 10
1Max Holloway13 / 4813 / 480 / 00
2Frankie Edgar13 / 5513 / 550 / 20
2Max Holloway27 / 6927 / 690 / 00
3Frankie Edgar17 / 4817 / 481 / 40
3Max Holloway30 / 6130 / 610 / 00
4Max Holloway29 / 7631 / 780 / 00
4Frankie Edgar22 / 4722 / 470 / 60
5Frankie Edgar26 / 6126 / 610 / 20
5Max Holloway30 / 7430 / 740 / 00

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights33

Frankie Edgar

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights22