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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Movsar Evloev won · U-DEC R3
Elo1536
Movsar Evloev
Elo1524
Aljamain Sterling

Movsar EvloevvsAljamain SterlingUFC Prediction Result

UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Saturday, December 7, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Movsar Evloev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMovsar Evloev: WrestlervsAljamain Sterling: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Movsar Evloev wins(67.7%)

Actual result: Movsar Evloev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Movsar Evloev at -238 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Movsar Evloev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Aljamain Sterling enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Movsar Evloev has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Movsar Evloev
Red Corner
VS
Aljamain Sterling
Blue Corner
-238
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+195
(34%)
1536
Elo
1524
32
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'7"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Movsar EvloevW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Hakeem Dawodu · Jun 21
W
vs Dan Ige · Jun 22
W
vs Diego Lopes · May 23
W
vs Arnold Allen · Jan 24
W
vs Lerone Murphy · Mar 26
latest
Aljamain SterlingW3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Henry Cejudo · May 23
L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23
W
vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24
W
vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25
W
DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Movsar EvloevMetricAljamain Sterling
3.91
Strikes / min
4.26
2.80
Strikes absorbed / min
2.15
61%
Strike defense
59%
4.78
TDs / 15 min
2.54
61%
Takedown defense
44%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.11evenly matched on net striking+2.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1624 vs 1674Strikes4.4 vs 4.6Takedowns4.8 vs 2.3Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.70Form1.1 vs 0.6
Movsar EvloevAljamain Sterling

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901505152015351550← oldermost recent →
Movsar Evloev(10 fights)Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +12.0|Blue -12.0
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red -1.6|Blue +1.6
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Movsar EvloevTargetAljamain Sterling

By target zone

6
26% acc · 75%
Head
7
44% acc · 58%
1
100% acc · 13%
Body
5
63% acc · 42%
1
50% acc · 13%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

6
27% acc · 75%
Distance
9
39% acc · 75%
0
0% acc
Clinch
2
100% acc · 17%
2
67% acc · 25%
Ground
1
100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Movsar Evloev rounds
0
even
2
Aljamain Sterling rounds
Round 1Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns1
Control0:55
3Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:49Control
Round 2Movsar Evloev edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns2
Control3:25
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:48Control
Round 3Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control1:49
4Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:39Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
8 / 26
Sig Strikes
12 / 26
28.3%
Sig Str %
48.7%
136 / 165
Total Strikes
45 / 67
4 / 5
TDs
6 / 8
83.3%
TD %
77.7%
0
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
2
6:09
Ctrl Time
6:16

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Aljamain Sterling3 / 117 / 182 / 20
1Movsar Evloev1 / 616 / 261 / 10
2Aljamain Sterling5 / 825 / 301 / 30
2Movsar Evloev3 / 948 / 582 / 20
3Aljamain Sterling4 / 713 / 193 / 30
3Movsar Evloev4 / 1172 / 811 / 20

Movsar Evloev

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights10

Aljamain Sterling

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights23