Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mario Bautista enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Umar Nurmagomedov has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mario Bautista (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Umar Nurmagomedov
oldest →W
KOvs Raoni Barcelos · Jan 23W
vs Bekzat Almakhan · Mar 24W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 24L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Jan 25W
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jan 26 Mario BautistaW5 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26W
DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Umar NurmagomedovMetricMario Bautista
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+2.00evenly matched on net striking+1.32
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Umar NurmagomedovMario Bautista
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Umar Nurmagomedov(9 fights)Mario Bautista(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -17.3|Blue +17.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +140.0|Blue -140.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Umar NurmagomedovTargetMario Bautista
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
3
Umar Nurmagomedov rounds
Round 1Umar Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns2
Control4:37
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Umar Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns2
Control3:02
Knockdowns0
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
1Knockdowns
Round 3Umar Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns7
Control3:07
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
