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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Phil Davis won · SUB R1
Elo1430
Alexander Gustafsson
Elo1490

Alexander GustafssonvsPhil DavisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 112: Invincible · Saturday, April 10, 2010Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Phil Davis won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:55

Style matchupAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fightervsPhil Davis: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Phil Davis wins(80.7%)

Actual result: Phil Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Phil Davis at -440 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Phil Davis has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Alexander Gustafsson
Red Corner
VS
Phil Davis
Blue Corner
+350
(22%)
Vegas Odds
-440
(81%)
1430
Elo
1490
39
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'5"
Height
6'2"
200.66 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexander GustafssonL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17
L
KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18
L
SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19
L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20
L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22
latest
Phil Davis
oldest →
W
vs Vinny Magalhaes · Apr 13
W
vs Lyoto Machida · Aug 13
L
vs Anthony Johnson · Apr 14
W
vs Glover Teixeira · Oct 14
L
vs Ryan Bader · Jan 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexander GustafssonMetricPhil Davis
4.03
Strikes / min
2.85
3.53
Strikes absorbed / min
1.33
51%
Strike defense
72%
1.53
TDs / 15 min
2.99
83%
Takedown defense
72%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.50Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+1.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes6.0 vs 48.0Takedowns0.0 vs 3.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Alexander GustafssonPhil Davis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)Phil Davis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -59.9|Blue +59.9
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexander GustafssonTargetPhil Davis

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
4
50% acc · 29%
0
0% acc
Body
4
100% acc · 29%
0
Leg
6
100% acc · 43%

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
1
50% acc · 7%
0
0% acc
Clinch
6
100% acc · 43%
0
Ground
7
70% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Alexander Gustafsson rounds
0
even
1
Phil Davis rounds
Round 1Phil Davis edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:25
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:40Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 5
Sig Strikes
14 / 18
0%
Sig Str %
77%
0 / 5
Total Strikes
28 / 34
0 / 2
TDs
1 / 5
0%
TD %
20%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:25
Ctrl Time
3:40

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Phil Davis14 / 1828 / 341 / 51
1Alexander Gustafsson0 / 50 / 50 / 20

Alexander Gustafsson

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights17

Phil Davis

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights11