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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Josh Parisian won · S-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1402

Josh ParisianvsRoque MartinezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · Saturday, June 19, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Josh Parisian won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Josh Parisian wins(72.4%)

Actual result: Josh Parisian wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Parisian at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Parisian enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Roque Martinez has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Josh Parisian has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Josh Parisian

Red Corner

Roque Martinez

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1491

Elo

1402

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

5'10"

200.66 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josh ParisianL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Dec 21

KOvs Alan Baudot · Jun 22

vs Jamal Pogues · Feb 23

SUBvs Martin Buday · Aug 23

KOvs Robelis Despaigne · Mar 24

latest

Roque MartinezL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Sep 20

vs Don'Tale Mayes · Nov 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josh ParisianMetricRoque Martinez

4.55

Strikes / min

3.28

4.88

Strikes absorbed / min

4.90

41%

Strike defense

56%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

0.38

46%

Takedown defense

53%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.33Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap-1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josh ParisianRoque Martinez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josh Parisian(7 fights)Roque Martinez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +88.7|Blue -88.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josh ParisianTargetRoque Martinez

By target zone

36% acc · 54%

Head

49% acc · 75%

85% acc · 37%

Body

100% acc · 23%

88% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

41% acc · 62%

Distance

46% acc · 61%

75% acc · 38%

Clinch

83% acc · 39%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josh Parisian rounds

even

Roque Martinez rounds

Round 1Roque Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:08

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:40Control

Round 2Josh Parisian edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control2:22

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

Round 3Roque Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control1:53

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

79 / 160

Sig Strikes

64 / 114

50%

Sig Str %

54.7%

100 / 186

Total Strikes

245 / 309

1 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:23

Ctrl Time

4:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Roque Martinez	26 / 46	84 / 105	0 / 0	0
1	Josh Parisian	29 / 59	35 / 68	0 / 0	0
2	Roque Martinez	9 / 18	82 / 99	0 / 0	1
2	Josh Parisian	28 / 44	37 / 54	1 / 6	0
3	Roque Martinez	29 / 50	79 / 105	0 / 0	0
3	Josh Parisian	22 / 57	28 / 64	0 / 1	0

Josh Parisian

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights7

Roque Martinez

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3