Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Islam Makhachev has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Islam Makhachev (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 22W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25 Alexander VolkanovskiW2 streak
oldest →L
vs Islam Makhachev · Feb 23W
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 23L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Feb 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Islam MakhachevMetricAlexander Volkanovski
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.00Δ 1.68 — meaningful gap+2.68
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Islam MakhachevAlexander Volkanovski
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Alexander Volkanovski(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +23.0|Blue -23.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +147.0|Blue -147.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Islam MakhachevTargetAlexander Volkanovski
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
0
Alexander Volkanovski rounds
Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:19
Knockdowns1
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:49Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
