Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Modestas Bukauskas has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Modestas Bukauskas (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Modestas Bukauskas
oldest →W
KOvs Rafael Cerqueira · Feb 25W
vs Ion Cutelaba · May 25W
KOvs Paul Craig · Sep 25L
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jan 26W
DECvs Christian Edwards · May 26 Marcin Prachnio
oldest →L
vs Philipe Lins · Apr 22W
vs William Knight · Feb 23L
SUBvs Vitor Petrino · Jul 23L
SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Jul 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Modestas BukauskasMetricMarcin Prachnio
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.81Δ 3.18 — meaningful gap+2.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Modestas BukauskasMarcin Prachnio
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Modestas Bukauskas(10 fights)Marcin Prachnio(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +49.3|Blue -49.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Modestas BukauskasTargetMarcin Prachnio
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
0
Modestas Bukauskas rounds
Round 1Marcin Prachnio edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:24
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 2Marcin Prachnio edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control2:19
34Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control2:48
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
