← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Stefan Struve won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1391

Elo1352

Stefan StruvevsDave HermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger · Wednesday, February 15, 2012Omaha, Nebraska, USA

Official fight result

Stefan Struve won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:52

Style matchupStefan Struve: Well-roundedvsDave Herman: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Dave Herman wins(56.8%)

Actual result: Stefan Struve wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dave Herman at -111 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dave Herman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stefan Struve is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Dave Herman has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Dave Herman is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Stefan Struve has lost 70% of fights by KO.
Stefan Struve has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Stefan Struve

Red Corner

Dave Herman

Blue Corner

+101

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-111

(53%)

1391

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'11"

Height

6'4"

213.36 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stefan StruveL2 streak

oldest →

vs Andrei Arlovski · Mar 18

vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 18

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 19

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Dec 19

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Oct 20

latest

Dave HermanL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jon Olav Einemo · Jun 11

KOvs Roy Nelson · May 12

SUBvs Minotauro Nogueira · Oct 12

KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Jul 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stefan StruveMetricDave Herman

3.12

Strikes / min

4.98

4.04

Strikes absorbed / min

3.78

46%

Strike defense

48%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

1.49

55%

Takedown defense

58%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92Δ 2.12 — meaningful gap+1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stefan StruveDave Herman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stefan Struve(10 fights)Dave Herman(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +38.3|Blue -38.3

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stefan StruveTargetDave Herman

By target zone

44% acc · 55%

Head

48% acc · 31%

100% acc · 11%

Body

87% acc · 25%

94% acc · 34%

Leg

85% acc · 43%

By position

57% acc · 83%

Distance

69% acc · 100%

Clinch

67% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stefan Struve rounds

even

Dave Herman rounds

Round 1Dave Herman edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:04

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Stefan Struve edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control0:51

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 81

Sig Strikes

51 / 74

57%

Sig Str %

67%

82 / 124

Total Strikes

51 / 74

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:55

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dave Herman	37 / 52	37 / 52	0 / 0
1	Stefan Struve	16 / 29	16 / 29	0 / 0
2	Dave Herman	14 / 22	14 / 22	0 / 0
2	Stefan Struve	31 / 52	66 / 95	1 / 1

Stefan Struve

StanceOrthodox

Height83.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights20

Dave Herman

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights5