Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Renan Barao enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Renan Barao has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Renan BaraoL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17L
vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18L
KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19L
vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19 Urijah Faber
oldest →L
vs Dominick Cruz · Jun 16L
vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 16W
vs Brad Pickett · Dec 16W
KOvs Ricky Simon · Jul 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Renan BaraoMetricUrijah Faber
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.12evenly matched on net striking+0.06
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Renan BaraoUrijah Faber
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Renan Barao(10 fights)Urijah Faber(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -114.1|Blue +114.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Renan BaraoTargetUrijah Faber
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Renan Barao edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:15
Knockdowns1
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
