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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Michal Oleksiejczuk won · U-DEC R3

Elo1508

Michal Oleksiejczuk editorial illustration

Elo1478

Michal OleksiejczukvsMarc-Andre BarriaultUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Saturday, February 7, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michal Oleksiejczuk won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichal Oleksiejczuk: Pressure fightervsMarc-Andre Barriault: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Michal Oleksiejczuk wins(71.8%)

Actual result: Michal Oleksiejczuk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michal Oleksiejczuk at -490 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michal Oleksiejczuk has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Marc-Andre Barriault has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michal Oleksiejczuk (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michal Oleksiejczuk

Red Corner

Marc-Andre Barriault

Blue Corner

-490

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+380

(21%)

1508

Elo

1478

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michal Oleksiejczuk

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 24

vs Shara Magomedov · Aug 24

KOvs Sedriques Dumas · Apr 25

KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 25

SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Marc-Andre Barriault

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Jan 24

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Jun 24

KOvs Dustin Stoltzfus · Nov 24

KOvs Bruno Silva · May 25

vs Shara Magomedov · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michal OleksiejczukMetricMarc-Andre Barriault

5.85

Strikes / min

5.65

4.50

Strikes absorbed / min

5.94

59%

Strike defense

49%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

0.34

52%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.35Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michal OleksiejczukMarc-Andre Barriault

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michal Oleksiejczuk(10 fights)Marc-Andre Barriault(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +30.1|Blue -30.1

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michal OleksiejczukTargetMarc-Andre Barriault

By target zone

57% acc · 65%

Head

32% acc · 74%

80% acc · 28%

Body

84% acc · 21%

91% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

138

63% acc · 99%

Distance

34% acc · 77%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

64% acc · 23%

50% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michal Oleksiejczuk rounds

even

Marc-Andre Barriault rounds

Round 1Michal Oleksiejczuk edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns1

Control0:08

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Michal Oleksiejczuk edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Michal Oleksiejczuk edged it

Sig. strikes52

Takedowns0

Control0:22

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

140 / 221

Sig Strikes

77 / 201

63%

Sig Str %

37.7%

143 / 225

Total Strikes

79 / 204

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:30

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marc-Andre Barriault	19 / 54	19 / 54	0 / 0
1	Michal Oleksiejczuk	47 / 73	47 / 73	1 / 1
2	Marc-Andre Barriault	33 / 80	34 / 81	0 / 0
2	Michal Oleksiejczuk	41 / 68	42 / 69	0 / 0
3	Marc-Andre Barriault	25 / 67	26 / 69	0 / 0
3	Michal Oleksiejczuk	52 / 80	54 / 83	0 / 2

Michal Oleksiejczuk

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18

Marc-Andre Barriault

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17