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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raoni Barcelos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1550

Cody GarbrandtvsRaoni BarcelosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · Saturday, June 14, 2025Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Raoni Barcelos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCody Garbrandt: Well-roundedvsRaoni Barcelos: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Raoni Barcelos wins(69.7%)

Actual result: Raoni Barcelos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raoni Barcelos at -255 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raoni Barcelos enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Cody Garbrandt

Red Corner

Raoni Barcelos

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-255

(72%)

1487

Elo

1550

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

165.1 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cody Garbrandt

oldest →

vs Trevin Jones · Mar 23

KOvs Brian Kelleher · Dec 23

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Apr 24

vs Xiao Long · Mar 26

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jul 26

latest

Raoni BarcelosW4 streak

oldest →

vs Kyler Phillips · Aug 23

SUBvs Cristian Quinonez · Feb 24

vs Payton Talbott · Jan 25

vs Ricky Simon · Nov 25

DECvs Montel Jackson · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cody GarbrandtMetricRaoni Barcelos

2.79

Strikes / min

4.65

3.66

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

58%

Strike defense

60%

0.85

TDs / 15 min

2.51

81%

Takedown defense

87%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.87Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap+0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cody GarbrandtRaoni Barcelos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cody Garbrandt(10 fights)Raoni Barcelos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -62.9|Blue +62.9

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +280.0|Blue -280.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cody GarbrandtTargetRaoni Barcelos

By target zone

27% acc · 82%

Head

41% acc · 84%

43% acc · 11%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 7%

Leg

86% acc · 16%

By position

26% acc · 79%

Distance

43% acc · 89%

86% acc · 21%

Clinch

44% acc · 11%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cody Garbrandt rounds

even

Raoni Barcelos rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:11

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Raoni Barcelos edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:02

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 3Raoni Barcelos edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:33

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 94

Sig Strikes

37 / 85

32%

Sig Str %

41.3%

45 / 111

Total Strikes

43 / 93

0 / 7

TDs

1 / 11

TD %

6.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:46

Ctrl Time

2:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Raoni Barcelos	6 / 19	8 / 21	1 / 5
1	Cody Garbrandt	10 / 44	10 / 44	0 / 1
2	Raoni Barcelos	15 / 35	17 / 38	0 / 5
2	Cody Garbrandt	6 / 27	14 / 35	0 / 3
3	Raoni Barcelos	16 / 31	18 / 34	0 / 1
3	Cody Garbrandt	12 / 23	21 / 32	0 / 3

Cody Garbrandt

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights18

Raoni Barcelos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15