Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Carlston Harris threatens submissions; Jake Matthews has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake Matthews
oldest →L
vs Michael Morales · Nov 23W
vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25W
SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25 Carlston HarrisL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Feb 22W
vs Jared Gooden · Mar 23W
SUBvs Jeremiah Wells · Aug 23L
KOvs Khaos Williams · May 24L
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jan 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake MatthewsMetricCarlston Harris
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.72evenly matched on net striking+0.33
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Matthews(10 fights)Carlston Harris(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +46.2|Blue -46.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -504.0|Blue +504.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jake MatthewsTargetCarlston Harris
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jake Matthews edged it
Sig. strikes46
Takedowns0
Control0:20
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jake Matthews edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control4:25
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:27Control
Round 3Jake Matthews edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control4:45
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
