Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Caio Machado has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Caio Machado (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mick Parkin
oldest →W
vs Jamal Pogues · Jul 23W
vs Mohammed Usman · Mar 24W
KOvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 24L
vs Marcin Tybura · Mar 25 Caio MachadoL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Don'Tale Mayes · Apr 24L
vs Brendson Ribeiro · Nov 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mick ParkinMetricCaio Machado
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.57Δ 2.38 — meaningful gap+2.95
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Mick ParkinCaio Machado
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mick Parkin(5 fights)Caio Machado(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +34.4|Blue -34.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Mick ParkinTargetCaio Machado
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Caio Machado edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns2
Control2:45
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control3:32
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
Round 3Caio Machado edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:06
35Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
