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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michael Johnson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1502

Elo1500

Michael JohnsonvsMarc DiakieseUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · Saturday, December 3, 2022Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Michael Johnson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichael Johnson: Pressure fightervsMarc Diakiese: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Marc Diakiese wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Michael Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marc Diakiese at -380 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Johnson has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Johnson

Red Corner

Marc Diakiese

Blue Corner

+310

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-380

(79%)

1502

Elo

1500

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Marc Diakiese

oldest →

SUBvs Rafael Alves · Nov 21

vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Mar 22

vs Damir Hadzovic · Jul 22

SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 23

vs Kaue Fernandes · Nov 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael JohnsonMetricMarc Diakiese

4.27

Strikes / min

2.54

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

58%

Strike defense

52%

0.57

TDs / 15 min

3.29

81%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.49evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael JohnsonMarc Diakiese

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Johnson(10 fights)Marc Diakiese(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.8|Blue -2.8

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael JohnsonTargetMarc Diakiese

By target zone

32% acc · 45%

Head

26% acc · 38%

67% acc · 45%

Body

77% acc · 44%

90% acc · 11%

Leg

63% acc · 18%

By position

46% acc · 95%

Distance

42% acc · 95%

43% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

33% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Johnson rounds

even

Marc Diakiese rounds

Round 1Marc Diakiese edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:18

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:06

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:06

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

83 / 181

Sig Strikes

55 / 127

43%

Sig Str %

43%

83 / 181

Total Strikes

55 / 127

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 6

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:30

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marc Diakiese	23 / 38	23 / 38	0 / 2
1	Michael Johnson	12 / 41	12 / 41	0 / 0
2	Marc Diakiese	11 / 40	11 / 40	0 / 1
2	Michael Johnson	30 / 61	30 / 61	0 / 1
3	Marc Diakiese	21 / 49	21 / 49	0 / 3
3	Michael Johnson	41 / 79	41 / 79	0 / 2

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32

Marc Diakiese

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14