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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nick Hein won · U-DEC R3

Elo1373

Elo1358

Nick HeinvsLukasz SajewskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · Saturday, June 20, 2015Berlin, Berlin, Germany

Official fight result

Nick Hein won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Nick Hein wins(60.8%)

Actual result: Nick Hein wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nick Hein at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nick Hein enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nick Hein has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Nick Hein (53.5%).
Lukasz Sajewski has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Nick Hein

Red Corner

Lukasz Sajewski

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1373

Elo

1358

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

167.64 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nick HeinL3 streak

oldest →

vs Yusuke Kasuya · Sep 15

vs Tae Hyun Bang · Sep 16

SUBvs Davi Ramos · May 18

vs Damir Hadzovic · Jul 18

KOvs Frank Camacho · Jun 19

latest

Lukasz SajewskiL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Gilbert Burns · Jul 16

KOvs Marc Diakiese · Oct 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nick HeinMetricLukasz Sajewski

2.65

Strikes / min

2.06

3.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.88

59%

Strike defense

57%

0.86

TDs / 15 min

1.01

83%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.96evenly matched on net striking-1.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nick HeinLukasz Sajewski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nick Hein(8 fights)Lukasz Sajewski(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.1|Blue -15.1

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nick HeinTargetLukasz Sajewski

By target zone

36% acc · 69%

Head

25% acc · 65%

73% acc · 15%

Body

42% acc · 19%

82% acc · 17%

Leg

57% acc · 15%

By position

43% acc · 94%

Distance

30% acc · 96%

38% acc · 6%

Clinch

33% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nick Hein rounds

even

Lukasz Sajewski rounds

Round 1Nick Hein edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:56

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 2Nick Hein edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Nick Hein edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 126

Sig Strikes

26 / 86

42%

Sig Str %

29.3%

64 / 137

Total Strikes

37 / 97

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

25%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:56

Ctrl Time

0:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lukasz Sajewski	5 / 20	11 / 26	0 / 1
1	Nick Hein	11 / 25	19 / 34	1 / 2
2	Lukasz Sajewski	10 / 33	15 / 38	0 / 0
2	Nick Hein	15 / 42	17 / 44	0 / 1
3	Lukasz Sajewski	11 / 33	11 / 33	0 / 0
3	Nick Hein	28 / 59	28 / 59	0 / 0

Nick Hein

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights8

Lukasz Sajewski

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3