Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake Matthews
oldest →W
vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25W
SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25W
DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26 Johnny Case
oldest →W
SUBvs Kazuki Tokudome · Sep 14W
KOvs Frankie Perez · Jan 15W
vs Francisco Trevino · Jun 15L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Jun 17 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake MatthewsMetricJohnny Case
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.72evenly matched on net striking+1.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jake MatthewsJohnny Case
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Matthews(10 fights)Johnny Case(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +161.6|Blue -161.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jake MatthewsTargetJohnny Case
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
Round 2Johnny Case edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:01
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:37Control
Round 3Jake Matthews edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control1:13
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:26Control
