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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nik Lentz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1395

Andre WinnervsNik LentzUFC Prediction Result

UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · Saturday, August 28, 2010Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Nik Lentz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Nik Lentz wins(73.2%)

Actual result: Nik Lentz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nik Lentz at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Andre Winner has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Andre Winner has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Andre Winner

Red Corner

Nik Lentz

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1351

Elo

1395

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andre WinnerL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rafaello Oliveira · Mar 10

SUBvs Dennis Siver · Nov 10

vs Anthony Njokuani · Jul 11

latest

Nik LentzL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18

vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19

KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andre WinnerMetricNik Lentz

2.52

Strikes / min

3.44

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

51%

Strike defense

50%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

3.30

74%

Takedown defense

43%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.05Δ 2.24 — meaningful gap+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andre WinnerNik Lentz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andre Winner(4 fights)Nik Lentz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -43.8|Blue +43.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -2.3|Blue +2.3

Grappler Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andre WinnerTargetNik Lentz

By target zone

44% acc · 55%

Head

63% acc · 43%

100% acc · 45%

Body

85% acc · 48%

0% acc

Leg

67% acc · 9%

By position

31% acc · 25%

Distance

64% acc · 39%

79% acc · 75%

Clinch

73% acc · 48%

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andre Winner rounds

even

Nik Lentz rounds

Round 1Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:10

7Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:13Control

Round 2Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:14

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:11Control

Round 3Nik Lentz edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:36Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 35

Sig Strikes

23 / 32

58%

Sig Str %

71.3%

41 / 56

Total Strikes

80 / 95

0 / 0

TDs

7 / 18

—

TD %

44%

Sub Att

Rev

0:24

Ctrl Time

13:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nik Lentz	7 / 11	12 / 16	3 / 9	0
1	Andre Winner	8 / 14	14 / 20	0 / 0	0
2	Nik Lentz	10 / 13	20 / 24	2 / 6	0
2	Andre Winner	9 / 10	23 / 24	0 / 0	0
3	Nik Lentz	6 / 8	48 / 55	2 / 3	1
3	Andre Winner	3 / 11	4 / 12	0 / 0	0

Andre Winner

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22