Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chandler enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Tony Ferguson has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Tony Ferguson has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael ChandlerL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Justin Gaethje · Nov 21L
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Nov 22L
vs Charles Oliveira · Nov 24L
KOvs Paddy Pimblett · Apr 25L
KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jun 26 Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Beneil Dariush · May 21L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael ChandlerMetricTony Ferguson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.48Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Michael ChandlerTony Ferguson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Chandler(8 fights)Tony Ferguson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -31.0|Blue +31.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -175.0|Blue +175.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Michael ChandlerTargetTony Ferguson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Michael Chandler edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns1
Control2:29
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Michael Chandler edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
