← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jai Herbert won · U-DEC R3

Elo1512

Elo1466

Jai HerbertvsRolando BedoyaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Saturday, August 3, 2024Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Jai Herbert won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJai Herbert: StrikervsRolando Bedoya: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Rolando Bedoya wins(60.0%)

Actual result: Jai Herbert wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rolando Bedoya at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rolando Bedoya enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Jai Herbert

Red Corner

Rolando Bedoya

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1512

Elo

1466

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jai Herbert

oldest →

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Mar 22

vs Kyle Nelson · Jul 22

vs Fares Ziam · Jul 23

vs Chris Padilla · Mar 25

KOvs Mandel Nallo · Apr 26

latest

Rolando BedoyaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Khaos Williams · May 23

vs Song Kenan · Aug 23

vs Jamie Mullarkey · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jai HerbertMetricRolando Bedoya

3.19

Strikes / min

6.23

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

5.50

52%

Strike defense

52%

0.42

TDs / 15 min

0.00

66%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.15evenly matched on net striking+0.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jai HerbertRolando Bedoya

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jai Herbert(9 fights)Rolando Bedoya(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +45.6|Blue -45.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jai HerbertTargetRolando Bedoya

By target zone

36% acc · 57%

Head

22% acc · 43%

75% acc · 33%

Body

43% acc · 15%

80% acc · 10%

Leg

67% acc · 42%

By position

46% acc · 96%

Distance

33% acc · 96%

75% acc · 4%

Clinch

43% acc · 4%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jai Herbert rounds

even

Rolando Bedoya rounds

Round 1Jai Herbert edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Jai Herbert edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns2

Control0:27

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

82 / 178

Sig Strikes

67 / 199

46.3%

Sig Str %

33%

89 / 185

Total Strikes

71 / 206

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

66%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:33

Ctrl Time

1:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rolando Bedoya	21 / 58	22 / 60	0 / 1
1	Jai Herbert	16 / 34	17 / 35	0 / 0
2	Rolando Bedoya	30 / 78	30 / 78	0 / 0
2	Jai Herbert	29 / 60	29 / 60	0 / 0
3	Rolando Bedoya	16 / 63	19 / 68	0 / 0
3	Jai Herbert	37 / 84	43 / 90	2 / 3

Jai Herbert

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights8

Rolando Bedoya

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4