Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Felipe Lima has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Payton Talbott (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Payton Talbott
oldest →W
SUBvs Nick Aguirre · Nov 23W
KOvs Cameron Saaiman · Mar 24W
KOvs Yanis Ghemmouri · Jun 24L
vs Raoni Barcelos · Jan 25W
vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 25 Felipe LimaW2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Muhammad Naimov · Jun 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Payton TalbottMetricFelipe Lima
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+3.21Δ 3.26 — meaningful gap-0.05
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Payton TalbottFelipe Lima
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Payton Talbott(6 fights)Felipe Lima(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +30.8|Blue -30.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -35.0|Blue +35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Payton TalbottTargetFelipe Lima
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control1:43
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:45Control
Round 2Payton Talbott edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control1:52
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:30Control
Round 3Payton Talbott edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control1:14
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:08Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
