Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ilia Topuria
oldest →W
SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 22W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 24W
KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 25L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jun 26 Max Holloway
oldest →W
KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Aug 23W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24W
vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25L
vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26W
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ilia TopuriaMetricMax Holloway
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.98Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap+2.30
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Ilia TopuriaMax Holloway
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ilia Topuria(10 fights)Max Holloway(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +2.3|Blue -2.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -2.4|Blue +2.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Ilia TopuriaTargetMax Holloway
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns2
Control0:41
30Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control0:00
35Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Ilia Topuria edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:04
Knockdowns1
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
