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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Alex Pereira won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1538

Elo1523

Magomed AnkalaevvsAlex PereiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · Saturday, October 4, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Pereira won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:20

Style matchupMagomed Ankalaev: Elusive strikervsAlex Pereira: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Alex Pereira wins(69.3%)

Actual result: Alex Pereira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Pereira at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Magomed Ankalaev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Magomed Ankalaev is a KO finisher (54% of wins). Alex Pereira has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Alex Pereira is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Magomed Ankalaev has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Alex Pereira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Magomed Ankalaev

Red Corner

Alex Pereira

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1538

Elo

1523

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Magomed AnkalaevW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Smith · Jul 22

KOvs Johnny Walker · Jan 24

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Oct 24

vs Alex Pereira · Mar 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 26

latest

Alex PereiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Apr 24

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Jun 24

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Oct 24

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 25

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Magomed AnkalaevMetricAlex Pereira

3.65

Strikes / min

5.16

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.50

56%

Strike defense

53%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

0.11

87%

Takedown defense

79%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.06evenly matched on net striking+1.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Magomed AnkalaevAlex Pereira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Magomed Ankalaev(10 fights)Alex Pereira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.5|Blue -14.5

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Magomed AnkalaevTargetAlex Pereira

By target zone

0% acc

Head

60% acc · 75%

75% acc · 75%

Body

50% acc · 11%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

44% acc · 100%

Distance

42% acc · 18%

Clinch

Ground

70% acc · 82%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Magomed Ankalaev rounds

even

Alex Pereira rounds

Round 1Alex Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 9

Sig Strikes

28 / 45

44%

Sig Str %

62%

4 / 9

Total Strikes

28 / 45

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Pereira	28 / 45	28 / 45	0 / 0	0
1	Magomed Ankalaev	4 / 9	4 / 9	0 / 1	0

Magomed Ankalaev

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights16

Alex Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights12