Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Tom Aspinall has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak
oldest →W
vs Jake Collier · Apr 22L
SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22L
KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23L
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24L
vs Martin Buday · Jun 24 Tom Aspinall
oldest →L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22W
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23W
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Andrei ArlovskiMetricTom Aspinall
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.60Δ 3.41 — meaningful gap+4.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Andrei ArlovskiTom Aspinall
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Tom Aspinall(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -23.7|Blue +23.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Andrei ArlovskiTargetTom Aspinall
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tom Aspinall edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
33Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:09Control
Round 2Tom Aspinall edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:08Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
