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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
TJ Dillashaw won · SUB R1
Elo1496
Elo1355
Vaughan Lee

TJ DillashawvsVaughan LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · Wednesday, July 11, 2012San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

TJ Dillashaw won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:33

Style matchupTJ Dillashaw: Well-roundedvsVaughan Lee: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: TJ Dillashaw wins(72.7%)

Actual result: TJ Dillashaw wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Dillashaw at -415 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Tale of the Tape

TJ Dillashaw
Red Corner
VS
Vaughan Lee
Blue Corner
-415
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+370
(21%)
1496
Elo
1355
40
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'6"
170.18 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ Dillashaw
oldest →
W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Nov 17
W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 18
L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jan 19
W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 21
L
KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Oct 22
latest
Vaughan LeeL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Motonobu Tezuka · Feb 13
L
SUBvs Raphael Assuncao · Jun 13
W
vs Nam Phan · Mar 14
L
KOvs Iuri Alcantara · May 14
L
vs Paddy Holohan · Jul 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ DillashawMetricVaughan Lee
5.09
Strikes / min
3.47
3.47
Strikes absorbed / min
2.07
62%
Strike defense
70%
1.56
TDs / 15 min
0.81
77%
Takedown defense
72%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.62evenly matched on net striking+1.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1499Strikes43.5 vs 21.5Takedowns1.5 vs 2.0Sub Atts2.50 vs 2.00Form0.1 vs 0.1
TJ DillashawVaughan Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
TJ Dillashaw(10 fights)Vaughan Lee(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +140.6|Blue -140.6
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Grappler Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff
Red +10.0|Blue -10.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ DillashawTargetVaughan Lee

By target zone

2
14% acc · 67%
Head
3
25% acc · 38%
1
100% acc · 33%
Body
4
80% acc · 50%
0
0% acc
Leg
1
50% acc · 13%

By position

3
19% acc · 100%
Distance
8
42% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
TJ Dillashaw rounds
0
even
0
Vaughan Lee rounds
Round 1TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns2
Control1:00
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
3 / 16
Sig Strikes
8 / 19
18%
Sig Str %
42%
5 / 18
Total Strikes
20 / 31
2 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
66%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Vaughan Lee8 / 1920 / 310 / 00
1TJ Dillashaw3 / 165 / 182 / 31

TJ Dillashaw

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights18

Vaughan Lee

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights8