Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brian Foster threatens submissions; Matt Brown has lost 42% of fights by sub.
- Brian Foster has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Matt Brown has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Matt Brown has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt Brown
oldest →L
KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20L
vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21W
KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21L
vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22W
KOvs Court McGee · May 23 Brian Foster
oldest →W
KOvs Forrest Petz · Sep 10 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt BrownMetricBrian Foster
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.84evenly matched on net striking+1.67
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Matt BrownBrian Foster
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Brown(10 fights)Brian Foster(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +8.4|Blue -8.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -2.0|Blue +2.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +74.0|Blue -74.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Matt BrownTargetBrian Foster
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Brian Foster edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control1:43
14Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:00Control
Round 2Brian Foster edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:07
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:19Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
