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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Trinaldo won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1369

Elo1496

Chad LaprisevsFrancisco TrinaldoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · Sunday, August 23, 2015Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

Official fight result

Francisco Trinaldo won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:43

Style matchupChad Laprise: Pressure fightervsFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Chad Laprise wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chad Laprise at -460 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chad Laprise has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chad Laprise

Red Corner

Francisco Trinaldo

Blue Corner

-460

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+365

(22%)

1369

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chad LapriseL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thibault Gouti · Aug 16

KOvs Brian Camozzi · Jul 17

KOvs Galore Bofando · Dec 17

KOvs Vicente Luque · May 18

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Dec 18

latest

Francisco Trinaldo

oldest →

KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21

vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21

vs Danny Roberts · May 22

vs Randy Brown · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chad LapriseMetricFrancisco Trinaldo

4.78

Strikes / min

3.13

3.59

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

65%

Strike defense

60%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

0.98

78%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.19evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chad LapriseFrancisco Trinaldo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chad Laprise(10 fights)Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -127.2|Blue +127.2

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chad LapriseTargetFrancisco Trinaldo

By target zone

25% acc · 38%

Head

44% acc · 88%

100% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 12%

100% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

47% acc · 100%

Distance

27% acc · 24%

Clinch

100% acc · 12%

Ground

58% acc · 65%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chad Laprise rounds

even

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

Round 1Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 17

Sig Strikes

17 / 36

47%

Sig Str %

47%

8 / 17

Total Strikes

17 / 37

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Francisco Trinaldo	17 / 36	17 / 37	0 / 0	0
1	Chad Laprise	8 / 17	8 / 17	0 / 0	0

Chad Laprise

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26