Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Michael Chiesa threatens submissions; Carlos Condit has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Michael Chiesa has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Carlos Condit
oldest →L
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18 Michael ChiesaW4 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24W
SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Carlos ConditMetricMichael Chiesa
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Carlos ConditMichael Chiesa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Carlos Condit(10 fights)Michael Chiesa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -35.3|Blue +35.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.1|Blue -2.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Carlos ConditTargetMichael Chiesa
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Michael Chiesa edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:18
9Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
3:42Control
Round 2Michael Chiesa edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:28Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
