Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).
- Sergio Pettis has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris CariasoL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Iliarde Santos · Oct 13W
vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14W
vs Louis Smolka · May 14L
SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14L
vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15 Sergio Pettis
oldest →L
vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 17W
vs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 18L
vs Jussier Formiga · Oct 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris CariasoMetricSergio Pettis
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.12evenly matched on net striking+0.97
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Chris CariasoSergio Pettis
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Cariaso(10 fights)Sergio Pettis(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -136.4|Blue +136.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Chris CariasoTargetSergio Pettis
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Sergio Pettis edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:30Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Sergio Pettis edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:48Control
Round 3Chris Cariaso edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control4:11
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:34Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
