Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Colby Covington enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jorge Masvidal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jorge Masvidal has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Colby CovingtonL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Dec 19W
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20L
vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21L
vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24 Jorge MasvidalL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Ben Askren · Jul 19L
vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21L
vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Colby CovingtonMetricJorge Masvidal
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.72evenly matched on net striking+1.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Colby CovingtonJorge Masvidal
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Colby Covington(10 fights)Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +34.9|Blue -34.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -196.0|Blue +196.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Colby CovingtonTargetJorge Masvidal
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns3
Control3:32
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jorge Masvidal edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control1:21
31Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:21Control
Round 3Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns1
Control4:34
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns0
Control2:13
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns2
Control4:34
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
