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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Rogerio Bontorin won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1494
Rogerio Bontorin
Elo1429
Raulian Paiva

Rogerio BontorinvsRaulian PaivaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · Saturday, August 10, 2019Montevideo, Uruguay

Official fight result

Rogerio Bontorin won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:56

Style matchupRogerio Bontorin: WrestlervsRaulian Paiva: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Rogerio Bontorin wins(76.0%)

Actual result: Rogerio Bontorin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rogerio Bontorin at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Raulian Paiva has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rogerio Bontorin
Red Corner
VS
Raulian Paiva
Blue Corner
+100
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
1494
Elo
1429
34
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'8"
170.18 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rogerio Bontorin
oldest →
W
vs Magomed Bibulatov · Feb 19
L
vs Ray Borg · Feb 20
L
KOvs Kai Kara-France · Mar 21
W
vs Matt Schnell · May 21
L
vs Brandon Royval · Jan 22
latest
Raulian PaivaL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Mark De La Rosa · Feb 20
W
DECvs Zhalgas Zhamagulov · Jul 20
W
vs Kyler Phillips · Jul 21
L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Dec 21
L
vs Sergey Morozov · Jun 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rogerio BontorinMetricRaulian Paiva
2.63
Strikes / min
4.14
3.27
Strikes absorbed / min
5.01
50%
Strike defense
48%
2.90
TDs / 15 min
0.65
51%
Takedown defense
77%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.64evenly matched on net striking-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1485Strikes3.2 vs 4.6Takedowns2.7 vs 0.5Sub Atts1.60 vs 0.50Form1.0 vs -1.0
Rogerio BontorinRaulian Paiva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Rogerio Bontorin(6 fights)Raulian Paiva(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +65.3|Blue -65.3
Recent Form
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rogerio BontorinTargetRaulian Paiva

By target zone

6
46% acc · 75%
Head
3
21% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0% acc
2
100% acc · 25%
Leg
0

By position

7
50% acc · 88%
Distance
3
20% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 13%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Rogerio Bontorin rounds
0
even
0
Raulian Paiva rounds
Round 1Rogerio Bontorin edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns2
Control1:21
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
8 / 15
Sig Strikes
3 / 15
53%
Sig Str %
20%
8 / 16
Total Strikes
7 / 19
2 / 5
TDs
0 / 0
40%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:21
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Raulian Paiva3 / 157 / 190 / 00
1Rogerio Bontorin8 / 158 / 162 / 50

Rogerio Bontorin

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights6

Raulian Paiva

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights7