Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Peter Sobotta has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Peter Sobotta (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Peter SobottaL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Steve Kennedy · Jun 15W
KOvs Ben Saunders · May 17L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Mar 18L
vs Alex Oliveira · Jul 20 Nicolas Dalby
oldest →W
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 23W
KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 23L
vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jun 24L
KOvs Randy Brown · Apr 25W
vs Saygid Izagakhmaev · Nov 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Peter SobottaMetricNicolas Dalby
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.76Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap+0.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Peter SobottaNicolas Dalby
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Peter Sobotta(9 fights)Nicolas Dalby(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -121.4|Blue +121.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +148.0|Blue -148.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Peter SobottaTargetNicolas Dalby
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Peter Sobotta edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control4:06
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Peter Sobotta edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns2
Control4:23
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Peter Sobotta edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control1:53
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:28Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
