Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Vagner Rocha threatens submissions; Jake Matthews has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Jake Matthews has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake Matthews
oldest →W
vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25W
SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25W
DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26 Vagner Rocha
oldest →L
vs Donald Cerrone · Jun 11W
SUBvs Cody McKenzie · Sep 11L
KOvs Jonathan Brookins · Feb 12 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake MatthewsMetricVagner Rocha
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.72Δ 2.58 — meaningful gap-1.86
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jake MatthewsVagner Rocha
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Matthews(10 fights)Vagner Rocha(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +168.6|Blue -168.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.7|Blue +1.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -864.0|Blue +864.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jake MatthewsTargetVagner Rocha
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jake Matthews edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control0:39
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:28Control
Round 2Jake Matthews edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:17
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
