Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joel Alvarez has a 18cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago MoisesL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24L
vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24L
KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25L
DECvs Gauge Young · Apr 26 Joel Alvarez
oldest →W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23W
KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24W
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24W
vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25L
SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago MoisesMetricJoel Alvarez
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.88Δ 3.38 — meaningful gap+1.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Thiago MoisesJoel Alvarez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Moises(10 fights)Joel Alvarez(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -27.9|Blue +27.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -266.0|Blue +266.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Thiago MoisesTargetJoel Alvarez
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Joel Alvarez edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
44Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
