Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Grant Dawson threatens submissions; Leonardo Santos has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Leonardo Santos has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Leonardo Santos has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Leonardo SantosL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Adriano Martins · Oct 16W
KOvs Stevie Ray · Jun 19W
vs Roman Bogatov · Jul 20L
SUBvs Clay Guida · Dec 21L
vs Jared Gordon · Aug 22 Grant Dawson
oldest →W
KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24W
vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25W
SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Leonardo SantosMetricGrant Dawson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.58Δ 1.58 — meaningful gap+1.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Leonardo SantosGrant Dawson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Leonardo Santos(10 fights)Grant Dawson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -94.2|Blue +94.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Leonardo SantosTargetGrant Dawson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Grant Dawson edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control0:42
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:24Control
Round 2Grant Dawson edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:30
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:44Control
Round 3Grant Dawson edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:09
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:10Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
