Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tim Kennedy
oldest →W
vs Roger Gracie · Jul 13W
KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 13W
vs Michael Bisping · Apr 14L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Sep 14 Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tim KennedyMetricKelvin Gastelum
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.94evenly matched on net striking+0.13
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Tim KennedyKelvin Gastelum
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tim Kennedy(5 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -132.9|Blue +132.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +651.0|Blue -651.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Tim KennedyTargetKelvin Gastelum
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tim Kennedy edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns2
Control2:48
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Kelvin Gastelum edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control1:04
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:58Control
Round 3Kelvin Gastelum edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
